[Key Points] Why a Trump-Kim summit looks harder this time

Summit odds dim: Prospects for a Trump-Kim meeting are fading as North Korea’s stronger nuclear arsenal, closer Russia ties and rejection of denuclearization reduce its incentive to compromise.

Balance has shifted: Unlike in 2018, Pyongyang now has a more mature nuclear force and multiple delivery systems, leaving Washington with fewer military or diplomatic pressure points.

Trump seeks win: Analysts say Trump may view renewed North Korea diplomacy as a potential foreign policy breakthrough ahead of the November midterms and a way to shift attention from Iran.

Concessions may grow: Trump could consider scaling back South Korea-US exercises or softening denuclearization demands to secure talks, potentially creating friction with Seoul.

Kim can wait: Pyongyang may hold out for better terms, calculating that its expanded nuclear capabilities and Russia partnership have strengthened its bargaining position.

Nuclear status key: North Korea could demand major concessions, including limits on allied military exercises or US acknowledgment of the North as a nuclear-armed state.

Seoul prepares early: South Korean analysts urge close coordination with Washington before any talks, as Seoul and Washington notably avoided explicit references to denuclearization in their latest statements.